Buccaneers Win Over the Saints One of the Most Improbable Ever

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers stole an incredible, shocking 17-16 win over the New Orleans Saints this week on Monday Night Football, and a bit of number crunching has revealed just how unlikely it actually was. According to Next Gen Stats, the Buccaneers' comeback from down 16-3 with 5:34 remaining was the fourth-most improbable since the service began tracking data in 2016.

Our comeback win goes down as the fourth-most improbable of the @NextGenStats era (since 2016) 📈#GoBucs pic.twitter.com/089dcfIXoV
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) December 6, 2022

With 5:34 left in the game, Next Gen Stats projected the Buccaneers as having only a 0.7 % chance of victory. It didn't matter. Despite an ugly start to the night that included only three points through three quarters and his third interception of the season, Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady completed 14 of 19 passes for 118 yards and a pair of touchdowns over his final two drives to propel his team to the unlikely victory.

It was the second staggering comeback of the season for Brady and the Bucs. In Week 9, the Bucs found themselves on their own 40-yard line trailing the Los Angeles Rams 13-9 with only 44 seconds to play and no timeouts. Next Gen Stats projected the Bucs as having a 10% chance at the win. Brady methodically marched his team down the field, completing five of seven passes for 54 yards and the game-winning touchdown.

With 53 career fourth-quarter comebacks and 70 game-winning drives between regular season and postseason play, there's little doubt that Brady is the NFL's all-time comeback king. It speaks to his ludicrous career that Monday's rally may not even rate among his wildest.